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Black Swan Theorem/ Theory of Black Swan Events

Written By Michael Reign on Wednesday, November 13, 2013 | 6:24 PM


Theoretical metaphor emphasizing the unpredictability of an event’s occurrence as well as its subsequent impact in a historical sense. The theory was developed in principal by the Lebanese American essayist Nassim Nicolas Taleb. A renowned researcher in the fields of probability and random contingency; Taleb is credited with the formulation of three distinctive hypothetical annotations associated with the Theory of Black Swan Events:

1) An events role of significance, scope of predictability, and degree of incidence expressed as a mathematical proportion dictates its eventual assignation. Gauged as an aspect of perceived normalcy, the chronological sequence of historical events, scientific discovery, commerce/ market finance, and technological advancement are weighed in accordance with their probability of occurrence.

2) The existence of variables beyond the standard accepted definition of statistical probability contribute to aspects of chronological aberration.

3) The evolution of inherent prejudice/ psychological bias into a mechanism of obfuscation, blinding society to the prospect of uncertainty, thereby concealing the historical precedent of geopolitical affairs.

In contrast to its philosophical counterpart (Black Swan Conundrum), the Black Swan Theorem focuses on the incidence of events possessing a high magnitude of consequence and their impact throughout history.


* LAYMAN’S SYNOPSIS - by Michael Reign - The Black Swan Theorem states that there are Black Swan Events that forever alter the course of history. It is assumed, in the natural environment, that all swans display white plumage as their solitary covering, when, in actuality, the incidence of a genetic anomaly within the species fostering the development of its black counterpart is not an uncommon occurrence. Thus the genesis of the adage emphasizing uncertainty and the prospect of the black swans appearance in a natural setting being unexpected. This is the same premise governing the Black Swan Event, in that such occurrences remain unpredictable, thus their incidence foretells of historical anomalies beyond the scope of statistical/ mathematical probability.


The visual composite above represents the incidence of Black Swan Events as depicted throughout the charted course of recorded history.
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